Pakistan: Individual Consultant for the Development of baseline and energy feasibility study

Terms of Reference
Hiring of an Individual Consultant for the Development of
baseline and energy feasibility study under PPAF III project

Introduction
Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF) is the lead apex institution for community-driven development in the country. Set up by the Government of Pakistan as an autonomous not-for-profit organization, PPAF enjoys facilitation and support from the Government of Pakistan, The World Bank, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), KfW Entwicklungsbank (Development Bank of Germany) and other statutory and corporate donors. PPAF aims to be the catalyst for improving the quality of life, broadening the range of opportunities and socio-economic mainstreaming of the poor and disadvantaged, especially women. The core operating units of the PPAF deliver a range of development interventions at the grassroots/community level through a network of more than 125 Partner Organizations across the country. These include social mobilization, support for livelihood, enterprise and employment, access to credit, skills development, infrastructure and energy, health, education and disaster management. Externally commissioned independent studies have demonstrated positive outcomes and impact of PPAF interventions on the lives of benefiting communities related to their economic output, household incomes, assets, agricultural productivity skills and other quality of life indices. For a complete profile, please visit our website at http://www.ppaf.org.pk/

Background
The lack of energy infrastructure has left much of rural Pakistan without light or power. The development of these areas is hindered by the absence of this crucial amenity. Pakistan suffers from massive energy deficits, whereby installation of high voltage infrastructure would not have the desired effect upon alleviating current and future energy needs. A focus on local energy sources, which can tap the local environment to fulfill the energy requirements is required. Decreasing capital costs of these technologies and improving their long-term viability is a key driver. PPAF’s support for energy projects is planned with a view towards energy independence for communities.

PPAF has been working in the Renewal Energy (RE) sector for more than 10 years and is now expanding this program to become sector developer in this field. A third of the population in Pakistan is off-grid and there is a need to utilize the available renewable energy resources for the benefit of rural, poor communities. International donor community is now focusing on financing renewable energy and climate change initiatives, therefore PPAF and its partners must be in a position to accept the challenge and play its role in a much effective manner.
PPAF has worked on the deployment of renewable energy projects since 2003 by financing small community scale hydropower projects, based on the demand from the community and requests from partner organizations; and the investments were then extended to other RE technologies like solar, wind and biogas in 2006. PPAF is now moving towards making rural communities energy independent. It is doing this through an expert group supported by key partners to upscale the renewable energy activities in Pakistan. This group will work to shifting the paradigm by promoting the spread of RE technologies with a focus on quality and creating awareness within the masses to make projects more sustainable.

PPAF has commenced exploring the potential for distributed generation and mini-grids in selected areas of Sindh—utilizing renewable energy based hybrid solutions. A pilot program is being implemented by Indus Earth Trust (IET) under PPAF III. It is expected to include implementation of mini-grid systems in 6 villages in 2016.

There is a need for a Feasibility and Baseline report which accompanies this implementation.

Objectives
The objective of this assignment is to develop a Feasibility Report and Baseline for 20 villages. The report will be a valuable educational resource for other mini-grid projects in villages throughout Pakistan.

To provide mini energy policies and strategic energy enhancement and provision plans for village based clusters. This will provide the road-map for Partner Organizations, PPAF, Donors, and Government to intervene and enhance energy access in these areas. The eventual goal of this program is to fill the ‘gap’ in the provision of power to energy marginalized communities—completing their ‘access to energy’—to enhance their ability improve their quality of life and economic outcomes. This effort complements the on-going GOP focus on enhancing grid power provision.

Scope of work
The Terms of Reference of the Consultant will include but not be limited to the following:

1) Feasibility and baseline

The individual consulting brief is to develop a report for a broad readership which communicates the justification, the process and the findings from the implementation phase.
It will report on 20 villages including the 6 where implementation is delivered by IET

A. The feasibility will involve assessment of 20 villages in Thatta District based on the following criteria:
• Have a “cluster” of at least 100 households (HHs) with a positive inclination towards adoption of such interventions—ease of ‘uptake’ once the solutions are discussed and finalized.
• Have some earlier livelihoods, microfinance, and community infrastructure interventions—idea being deepening and saturation.
• Not restricted to off-grid areas—can be on-grid and ‘marginalized’.
• Potential of livelihoods and social enhancement by enhancement/provision of uninterrupted power evident.
B. Baseline: Develop/confirm base socio-economic profiles for each of the village. This includes interview based: poverty assessment through COs and or VOs; conduct of FGDs at village level; developing of social, economic, financial and environmental indicators. Establish how better power provision/energy access will support the village desired outcomes related to livelihoods and quality of life.
C. Baseline: Carry out an energy demand and supply audit of the village. Identify main uses of energy and the sources of the energy. Establish the state of energy access for the village. Project future uses and discuss/derive future energy sources for the village—what would, e.g. an ideal energy mix for the village look like? This audit will also include a basic GIS map of the village and locational layouts of current and future power environment.
D. Baseline report; this will identify the current status quo in the 20 villages, which can be used as a benchmark to measure progress after future implementation.
E. Feasibility: Recommend the Ideal energy mix for each village, based on locally available resources including biomass, solar, wind. This will be characterized in terms of system size, technology type, system features, social and commercial outcomes. Financial models of each system will include capital costs, operational costs. Quantifiable returns will be quantified in terms of economic value of increased productivity. Other social benefits will be expressed in qualitative terms such as increased educational outcomes etc.
F. An executive summary will be provided to provide an easy communication tool and enable the work to be understood to a wider audience.

The Individual consultant is required to undertake the following tasks

Provide the Feasibility and Baseline Report through undertaking the following
a. Direct liaison with IET team on project content
b. Advise on design of energy audit, system design, micro-finance options
c. Data assessment from energy audit survey results
d. Analysis of data and presentation of results in graphical form
e. Preparation of report documentation, drafting and feedback from PPAF
f. Drafting of GIS maps of villages based on data survey collected by IET
g. Visit to Karachi for approx. 10 days including visits to Villages 3-4 days, plus 6-7 days at IET office.
h. Liaison with PPAF on Feasibility and Baseline
i. Liaise with IET while they do the social mobilization and implementation planning and delivery and ensure Feasibility and Baseline is complete by project deadline.

The methodology should include:
• Attendance at team meetings by audio/video conference, and in person
• Travel to Karachi Pakistan and 10 days’ work in Pakistan, both visiting villages and working at Indus Earth’s office
• Project management activities for feasibility phase including coordinating timelines, tasks, team roles
• Contribution to the design of questionnaire survey for villagers
• Review of mini-grid case studies from Bangladesh, India and Africa
• Energy audit of village requirements, existing demand, future energy needs
• Technical recommendations for mini-grid solutions including:
o Solar PV system sizes
o Inverter and
o Off-grid systems
o Unreliable grid areas, where villages have grid power for only ~5 hours per day, and mini-grid must go into island mode at other times
o Using solar PV/battery/inverter as a base for all villages, we will review technical and financial feasibility of integration of additional renewables including
 Wind turbines 1-10kW scale
 Biogas digesters
• Consideration of commercial structures for mini-grid sustainability including micro finance loans
• Interface with the implementation team at Indus Earth including specification of equipment to be ordered for installation, based on recommendations of feasibility study
• Identify Case studies from comparable countries and regions which have successfully implemented mini-grids
• Provide report structure for feasibility study, review report inputs from Indus Earth team, finalise report and take PPAF feedback on report content.
• Ensure the reports serves as a ‘how to’ guide on development of mini-grid projects for other proponents to use in future.
• This may include the creation of a simple spreadsheet software tool which guides proponents through survey, data collection, data analysis, system design, energy modelling and monitoring.
• Project management including administer an online project collaboration tool for team collaboration.

Site visits
The Individual Consultant will has to visit the villages in Feb/March 2016 and work from the Indus Earth office in Karachi.

Documents to be provided by PPAF

• Rural energy related reports completed for PPAF or with PPAF collaboration within the last 5 years
• Interim guidelines for hiring of Individual consultants

Deliverables
1) Feasibility Study
• Timetable of works on Inception
• Draft Report
• Final Report
• Presentation of Report

Payment Schedule
• 20% on submission of inception report
• 40 % on submission of Draft Report
40% on submission and acceptance of Final Report and presentation of report

Clients (PPAF’s) Responsibility
PPAF shall provide the following assistance/ information to the firm;
• Provide all necessary input and documents
• Meetings with concerned staff at PPAF, PO and CO level

Qualification and Experience Requirements
Individual consultant should have at least 15 years of overall experience and at least ten (10) years of experience in renewable energy. The Consultant should possess good knowledge of all concepts, principles, technology, financial, environmental, and required for understanding of energy systems and generation in a rural Pakistan context. Specialized knowledge and significant documented experience in 2-3 substantive areas/aspects of energy (e.g. solar PV; wind energy; biomass energy; hybrid systems, financial and commercial modelling of energy generation. Proven capacity to analyze, plan, think and perceive strategically with experience of energy planning. Knowledge of energy systems in household and mini-grid context.

Time Duration
The assignment is expected to be completed within 1 and a half month from the date of signing of the contract and complete by 31 March 2016

Source of Fund
World Bank PPAF-III

Selection Method
An individual consultant will be selected in accordance with the Individual Consultant method set out in World Bank Procurement Guidelines (October 2006).